Is your boat safe from a hurricane?

Over the years I have wondered about the wisdom of keeping a boat anywhere in the Caribbean during the hurricane season.

And, with Beryl breaking records for her intensity and how early in the season she developed, is also making many wonder what the future holds. This link reviews a number of factors that make Beryl an outlier.

To name a few: Beryl was…

1. The strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record with maximum sustained winds of 165mph.
2. The earliest category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, two weeks sooner than any prior recorded storm.
3. The strongest to ever hit the southern Windwards. Only two other category 4 hurricanes had ever been recorded to hit near Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines.
4. Earliest 150-mph hurricane in any season and the farthest south ever recorded.
5. First June category 4 hurricane. Beryl gained Category 4 intensity in the Atlantic basin. Only three other hurricanes gained Cat. 4 intensity prior to August.
6. Easternmost “major” June hurricane on record as a Category 3 storm this early in the season, roughly 2,000 miles farther east than Alma in 1966.

All and all, this season is forecast to be intense, with many storms expected and to see the path of destruction of Beryl, especially in areas that are not normally struck so violently, is sobering.

So, back to summering in Trinidad. With so many of our friends singing the praises of Trinidad for years we opted to leave Pandora there to get some major work done. Seeing the destruction that Hurricane Beryl has brought to the area has certainly given me pause for thought.

We chose Trinidad as it is the island that has the lowest frequency of hurricanes of any in the Caribbean, with, I think, a single hit by a major storm in 100 years.

Many opt to stay in Antigua, St Lucia and other islands assuming that those areas are fine for a number of reasons like: “the boats are tied down with straps” or “the yard is protected by nearby hills”, or “the odds are that a hurricane will hit a particular island in any given year are low”, or “Well, my insurance company covers my boat during the hurricane season, even in the hurricane zone.” and what now seems like the best one “Well, Grenada hardly ever gets hit with a hurricane”. Sadly, Beryl proved that otherwise with extreme and widespread damage.

The problem with these arguments are that “you just don’t know” and in any given year a hurricane can strike just about anywhere in the eastern Caribbean with perhaps the notable exception of Trinidad but with warmer sea temperatures, it’s possible that this will change in the future.

One of my friends says “well, any given island may only get hit once in a decade so the odds are in your favor.” Not sure I buy this logic as I think about it this way. Imagine that you could cross a busy street without looking and that the likelihood was that you’d only be struck and killed on one out of ten crossings. I doubt that you would take that risk and yet cruisers leave their boats in yards that have a history of being hit by major storms assuming that the odds are in their favor.

Many cruisers choose to summer in Grenada in the water as it is a quick overnight run to Trinidad if things look iffy. This AIS screen shot taken the day before Beryl hit the island. I am told that upwards of 100 boats ran south in advance of Beryl and took shelter in Trinidad and most are still there with many loading up with donated supplies to take back to Grenada and the islands to the north that sustained the worse damage.

Some choose to roll the dice and stay put, assuming that they can keep their boat off the beach. I don’t know exactly where this photo was taken but a day like this would not be my first choice.

For those that stayed in Grenada, a place that many feel is safe from most hurricanes, and did not head south to Trinidad, and some didn’t fare so well.

And while many consider Grenada to be safe during the hurricane season, the northern part of the island sustained a lot of damage but noting quite compares to the hit that nearby Carriacou took. This video illustrates a level of destruction that is hard to imagine.

And, this is certainly not the first time that the eastern Caribbean has been faced damage of this magnitude. Let’s not forget how things ended up for the Moorings fleet in the BVI following Irma, in spite of being well prepared to weather a storm. When a major storm makes a direct hit there is really nothing that can be done to keep the infrastructure intact. Think sustained winds of nearly 200mph,

A common reason that cruisers feel safe in leaving their boat within the hurricane zone is that their boat will be tied down with heavy straps, designed to keep the boat upright. Here is a screen shot from the video above illustrating how little good strapping down a boat does when conditions are this severe.

In fact, the reason that the Salty Dawg Rally goes to Antigua was the result of the last major storm to hit the BVIs. I had campaigned to move the rally to Antigua as a better option for the rally as the island has more resources and entertainment options for the Dawgs than the BVIs but it wasn’t until the BVIs were so terribly damaged that the switch happened.

The following year the rally was split between Antigua and the BVIs but that was the last year and now Antigua is the destination and most everyone seems happy about that decision.

I do worry about what would happen if a major hurricane were to strike Antigua and the effect that it would have on the destination of the rally. It is sobering to see the destruction that has occurred on islands that have suffered direct hits over the years and how long it has taken to rebuild. Given the fact that Barbuda, only 25 miles from Antigua was flattened the same year that the BVIs were hit, I suppose that it is only a matter of time until something terrible happens in Antigua as well.

With rising sea temperatures, this year and into the future, it is likely that the region will see a greater number of more powerful storms.

With insurance premiums increasing so much over the last few years, I am also assuming that seeing such a powerful storm so early in the season will lead to further increases in what it costs to insure cruising boats.

In spite of the terrible destruction, the cruising community has really stepped up and many boats that took shelter in Trinidad will be heading north in the coming days to deliver supplies to those who have lost so much.

Many business in Trinidad have donated supplies.

Here are some of them, under cover, at Powerboats Marina in Trinidad, ready to load.

Unfortunately, there is ample evidence that the frequency and strength of storms will be increasing and it is safe to say that storing your boat on any island within the hurricane belt is a gamble, perhaps now more than ever.

For now, unless you live aboard and are able to make a run for it when a storm is heading your way, Trinidad seems like the best option and hopefully changing weather patterns will not rob us of what appears to be the last place for safe storage.

Is your boat safe from a hurricane? Time will tell but for sure it has a lot to do with “location, location, location”