The last two days of weather briefings have pointed toward a Saturday morning departure from Hampton, bound for Antigua.

With the bulk of the fleet still in Hampton hoping that a window would open up, this was good news.   The expectation that Saturday would be the day became clearer in the last few days.

That’s good  news after a delay of nearly two weeks.  It’s been very tough with many boats having to scramble to find crew to replace those who were not willing to possibly miss Thanksgiving at home with family.

The “hard stop” of crew needing to be home by Thanksgiving has been been in the back of everyone’s mind each year but this is the first rally in recent memory that brought that concern to the forefront.

It has also upended the nearly two weeks of arrival events planned in Antigua and while I am certain that we will be able to put most of them on, I expect that some will end up being held weeks after the fleet arrives.

I for one, need to be back in the US for Christmas and time leading up to that as we too want to be with family.  In past years Brenda has flown down to meet me when we arrived but with the long weather delay this year she won’t be coming down.

We both had flights scheduled and paid for months ago that would have us returning home on November 22nd and as I write this I am not sure that I will even have arrived by then.

Even if we have a fast trip and get there by the 22nd, I am torn if I should just fly out and leave the the rest of the fleet to fend for themselves and let someone else handle the the events as they unfold.

It’s a complex issue but I am certainly pleased that I have crew and while it’s going to be a rush to get ready to leave tomorrow, we should be able to get off of the dock by late morning, I hope.

My crew, George and Bob arrive at BWI via Amtrak early afternoon today and I will be picking up a car mid morning to meet them.  As I write this Brenda and I are in MD visiting family so I am only about an hour from BWI.

I wish that I could say more about what we will expect on the run but the key issue for us will be to get out between several bouts with nasty weather and a need to focus on getting as far south and east as possible before some really nasty weather pushes down from the north and strong easterly trade winds kick in later in the week.

Leaving tomorrow will be a bit like “threading the needle” as we will be heading out just as a low begins to move to the north.   See the arrow of where we will depart from mid morning tomorrow, I hope. A few days later, by Wednesday I hope, we will have to be far enough south and east to avoid strong winds from the south and on the nose.  I doubt that we will be able to avoid this entirely but time will tell and points to the importance of getting going in the morning.  If all goes well we should be able to sail a good amount of the trip and pick up the trades farther north than I have had in recent years.  All of this suggests a relatively fast trip.

Wish us luck.

If you’re interested in following along go to this link and you will see all of the boats in the fleet with their tracks as we head south.  Notice that most of the boats that were heading to the Bahamas are already there.

You can also follow Pandora alone, without the rest of the fleet by following this link as well. 

After we settle into our run I hope to put up a post most days by sending the text to Brenda who will put it up on the site.

I’ll admit that it is a bit anxiety producing to finally be about ready to head out after so many delays and a very tough summer of trying to put Pandora into the best shape for the run.

If dollars spent is any indication of how well things will progress, it should be a “perfect” trip.  We’ll see about that.   Fingers crossed.

Here’s to getting ready and to a good and fast trip.

 

 

With apologies to Bob Merrill and his 1952 hit song, “How much is that Doggie in the window”.  I find my self wondering when the next weather”window” for the Dawgs will open up so they can head out, and when it happens, how many “Dawgies will be in the window”, heading to Antigua.

When it became clear that we were likely to be at sea over Thanksgiving, I wondered how many would opt to roll the dice and hold off from leaving until late November because they, or their family, just could not bear the thought of them being away for the holiday.

Over the last week there has been much debate among the fleet about the plusses and minuses of waiting until after Thanksgiving or leaving at the first available window.

In his marathon weather briefing on Saturday, lasting 90 minutes, Chris made it pretty clear that waiting until late in November or worse, early December was a very iffy proposition, even for a run to the Bahamas.

Late fall conditions in the north Atlantic are challenging enough, with windy cold fronts exiting the East Coast every few days.  And, in the second half of November and into December, the frequency and intensity of those fronts gets even worse.

Someone in the fleet did an informal poll of skippers and of those who responded only two said that they were waiting and would skip any window that conflicted with Thanksgiving.

Given the increased risks of difficult conditions, I am very glad that those planning to delay are in the extreme minority.   The idea of having a large number of boats trying to “thread the needle”, leaving late in the season, is very concerning to me.

In the case of one of the boats planning to head out late that I have been communicating with, I advised him to skip the run to Antigua and instead, head to the Bahamas, a run that will also be much more difficult the later he leaves.  Later in November it is unlikely that he will be able to make the run the entire way without stopping along the way to wait for better weather.

Ironically, a later start to the Bahamas is likely to take 2 weeks, perhaps longer than a run to Antigua, in spite of it being about half the distance.

When we had our briefing on Saturday, Chris Parker, our weather router, said that he thought there was a decent chance that we’d be able to head at some point between November 13th to 16th, about a week from now.

Here is the forecast for tomorrow, Tuesday.  The arrow is Hampton, where we will be leaving from.  As you can see, the wind is quite strong and from the north.  There is no way that we’d want to be out in that, crossing the Gulf Stream.  As the Stream flows to the NE, having strong winds, 30-40kts, from the NE against the current would make for miserable conditions.   Nope, have to wait for better conditions. And, two days later not looking good at all, with strong onshore winds again, a total reversal as the low moves up the coast.    Of course, these assumptions are more than a week from now but just in case, we want to begin to think about being ready when the picture become clearer.

If the assumptions of a week from now are right, a window might begin to open up as early as next Sunday.  The arrow shows north wind out of the Chesapeake in the low teens, a broad reach with easy sailing conditions.   The model shows that the really nasty stuff has moved to the NE.  Even if these conditions played out, it’s likely that Chris would suggest waiting another day to give the seas an opportunity to calm down from the heaviest winds. What happens after that date as we make our way south?  In past years we have had to go a very long way to get to consistent “trade winds” out of the east.  This scenario seems to suggest that the trades would be building fairly far north and from the east.  In the past, we have been frustrated by relentless SE winds, making it very difficult to go south.  Several years ago we had to motorsail to the east for three days waiting for more favorable winds.   During those three days we never made a mile closer to Antigua.  It was very frustrating.

As I sit here on Monday, a week before all of this will unfold, who knows what the timing and conditions we will face will be like.

The good news is that both the European and US weather models seem pretty much aligned in their assumptions, which suggests that things might play out as described even if this is still a week out.

In a few days Brenda and I head to MD to spend some time with our grandchildren.   That might end up being a convenient half way stopping point as I plan my return to Pandora next weekend to get ready for the run.

I really hope that conditions will allow for a departure next week as one of my crew will have to bail if we can’t get to Antigua by the end of the month.

With Thanksgiving on the horizon and the prospect of being at sea for the holiday, it will be interesting to see just how many Dawgies will end up in the (next) window.

Yes, I get it, and know that I have tortured that about enough for now so I guess I’ll sign off.

Another update after our next briefing tomorrow evening.

Fingers crossed.

It’s only November 5th, less than a week after the rally was expected to leave. The bad news is that it is still not clear as to when we will be heading out.

One thing that is seeming pretty clear is that those boats that take the next “window” to head south may very well be at sea for Thanksgiving.

I have no idea how many boats in the fleet just can’t find a way to feel that this is OK, but for sure, this topic is on everyone’s mind.

Of course, it’s not just skippers that are facing this, it’s crew as well, so there is a good deal of shuffling, and hand-wringing going on.

Some boats, like mine, are sitting in marinas in the Hampton area, with skipper and crew having headed home.  Others are hanging out in Hampton, ready to go at a moment’s notice.

I have a number of calls from concerned skippers who just can’t, or their family can’t, get their head around the idea of being away for Thanksgiving.    I am sensitive to this but to me the overarching question is one of safety and the idea of trying to delay departure to the end of the month, the cutoff for boats that wish to be part of the rally is a bit like “threading the needle” as winter in the North Atlantic gets closer.    This trip is tough enough as it is and to add time restrictions into the mix is in serious conflict with the fact that the most dangerous thing on a boat is a calendar.

Even during the best passage things can quickly head south and I want to do whatever I can that maximizes the opportunity to have a comfortable and safe journey.

I suspect that some may feel that all this is driven by my desire to get everyone to Antigua, or wherever they are headed, but the fact is that I want everyone to have as good an experience as possible and arrive safely.  The sad truth is that the first big trip is often the last if things don’t go well.

Who knows, but hopefully tomorrow, following our discussion with Chris Parker this evening, I will have more to report.

One good thing about the delay is that I have been able to finish up with the fall leaf cleanup which saved me some money.   Sadly, that savings was more than offset by the cost of extra dockage, flights and car rentals.

Such is the life of a snowbird.   Yes, I know that it is a painful trut but I’ll take it.

The good news is that once I am in the Caribbean all of this will soon fade from memory.

Antigua is calling and I must go… but when?At least it’s a sunny day here in CT.

And yes, the plot thickens.   More to come, soon I hope, but in a good way.

I cling to that belief.

 

 

 

 

 

If perhaps you have been following the tracking map for the rally, you will have seen that Pandora is still in port and nope, I didn’t leave on Monday as planned.

Such is life and the best laid plans.   This is what the forecast for a few days from now looks like.  Red is REALLY WINDY.After the months and weeks leading up to the departure of the Caribbean Rally, we were all very disappointed to discover that there wasn’t even a hint of a good weather window to get to Antigua for the foreseeable future.

Over the weekend skippers and crew assembled to hear what Chris Parker, our weather router, had to say about conditions for heading out. We listened intently as he described conditions that I had never encountered as we saw really strong persistent southerly winds in the eastern Caribbean, a late season hurricane spooling up in the central Caribbean and a huge low crashing toward Bermuda, all at the same time.

As he described the conditions that we’d encounter if we attempted to go out within the next few days as a sort of “you can’t get there from here” and that perhaps the closest we might get to Antigua might be the Dominican Republic or the Bahamas, if we even got that far at all.

I left that meeting feeling a bit shell-shocked, trying hard to prepare myself for what looked like a tough trip and if I’d be able to leave at all.

The next morning I woke up, did my last post about leaving Monday, and set out to make coffee for me and my crew.   I hadn’t even put the water on to boil when I blurted out, “I’m not going”.   George, who has sailed around the world and publishes Blue Water Sailing Magazine, had also come to the same conclusion and when I called Rick Palm, another Circumnavigator, and fellow board member, told me he was about to call me, having come to the same conclusion.

With 100 boats getting ready to head out, we called a meeting and less than two hours later we had a packed house.

I announced, as president of the group, that I wasn’t leaving and then we talked about our thoughts with the group.

Within an hour nearly everyone in the room had decided to delay their departure.  A few ventured out anyway but that’s to be expected as some have a very tough time changing gears once they set their minds to something.  Of course, the philosophy of Salty Dawg is that every skipper and crew make their own decision on when and if to head out.

Of the 20 boats that were heading to Bermuda or the Caribbean, all but a handful decided to delay.

However, the window to head to The Bahamas, while not ideal, didn’t look terrible so most of those boats departed as planned.

As you can imagine, such a dramatic about face gave everyone a lot to think about and many are still trying to decide what to do next.

Many have lost their carefully selected crew, some are revaluating their destinations and a few have decided that they will have to skip the season entirely.

After months of planning, and in some cases years, it was a very difficult day while everyone wrestled with what to do next.   I for one, scrambled to find a more reasonably priced place to leave Pandora for the next week or two and booked a flight home where I will be standing by until a window begins to emerge and then I’ll hightail it back to Pandora and get ready to depart yet again.

As I write this, I’ll admit that I am not terribly optimistic that things will improve any time soon but one can always hope.  With Thanksgiving and Christmas on the horizon that complicates things even more.   I have no idea how this will turn out.

Even though we are now in a frustrating state of  limbo, the days leading up to “departure” were great fun with seminars, a pig roast and plenty of time to compare notes with one another.

A highlight of the week was a live Search And Rescue, SAR, demonstration by the US Coast Guard with a J Hawk helicopter.  If you have never seen something like this in action, it is amazing.

The chopper arrived and began to hover low over the water perhaps 100 yards from the dock.  As they dropped low to the water a stunning amount of salt spray was kicked up and soaked the crowd that had assembled to watch.  As the chopper came over my brand new Salty Dawg cap was blown from my head into the water, only to sink quickly out of sight.

The downdraft was incredible.   The chopper was so low you could easily see the faces of the crew.  They dropped down low near the water.  Salt spray was flying everywhere.   This picture doesn’t begin to do justice to the wind that they were kicking up.  Every boat in the marina was soon covered with salt.   I had to stop shooting several times to clean off the lens of my camera.  Soon the rescue swimmer was lowered to the water. Before he went down they tossed out a “rescue dummy”, something that they use to simulate a real person.  It is about the same size and weight of a person. After the swimmer secured the dummy, they showed how they would pull up someone in a wire litter.All and all, it was a totally awesome display.  It looked plenty hard to do on flat water and I can only imagine what it’s like to rescue someone in 40′ waves and hurricane force winds.  Not for the feint of heart.

All I can say is that I really hope that I never witness something like this in the ocean and the idea of someone swimming up to Pandora and announcing “Hi, I’ll be your rescue swimmer today” is a bit frightening.

Having witnessed this demonstration first hand, and not for the first time, the thought of heading out aboard Pandora and questionable conditions just didn’t seem like a good idea.

As my friend Rick likes to say, “don’t rush, the islands will still be there if you don’t leave now”.

So, here I sit in CT, at home, with no idea of when I might return to begin the run to Antigua.   With Thanksgiving and Christmas bearing down on us, who knows what this will turn out like.

With all of this uncertainty and the fact that my crew won’t be willing to be at sea for Thanksgiving, I have to ask myself “will we ever leave?”.

I guess that I’ll just have to wait and see.

It’s Sunday morning and Pandora is in Hampton with the rest of the fleet for the Salty Dawg Rally to the Caribbean, in my case, to Antigua.

I can’t believe that I am finally here and almost ready to go.  It’s been a wild summer beginning when I left Pandora in Deltaville, culminating with all the work that was done on Pandora in Annapolis.

It’s been a few crazy days here in Hampton after arriving on Wednesday with meetings every day with skippers and crew, departure dinners and other events keeping us busy.   The marina is filled to capacity and we had over 250 skippers and crew at our departure dinner on Thursday.

With an expected departure tomorrow, I wish that I was confident that the trip will be an easy one.  Normally, our goal is to get as far east as possible before turning south to catch the trade winds for Antigua.  however, this year it is very different with a system expected to develop to the east that will have strong south winds, basically on the nose that will make it impossible to head to Antigua for the second half of the trip.

Our strategy for the first half of the trip will be to head basically south toward the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, much farther west than normal, and continue on that course to see what develops later in the week.

The hope is that conditions will improve to allow us to head farther east but at this point it’s not looking great.   This means that we may be forced to either stop in the DR or to continue upwind from there to Antigua, an unappealing option to be sure.

It’s a bit too soon to really know what the wind will be as the weather patterns this year are very different than anything we have encountered in past passages so I guess we will just have to get out there and see what happens.

Brenda and Jane, wife of Peter, one of my crew, plan on flying to Antigua on November 17th and that now seems like it might be good timing as we really don’t know what our passage will be like and given all of the uncertainty, it is very hard to know when we will end up in Antigua and if we will have to stop somewhere else along the way.

We have another weather briefing later today from Chris Parker and I am hoping that things will become clearer.  For now, I guess that’s all I can report.

As in the past you can follow along on my Garmin page at this link.

There is also a fleet tracking page that shows the track for every boat in the fleet that you can see here.

For now, here’s Pandora in her slip in Hampton.   All systems are pretty much ready to go, provisioning is mostly done and we are anxiously waiting more information, hopefully good, on what to expect when we depart.