We are in our fourth day at sea and are only about a third of the way to Antigua and we are in a holding pattern.  I had hoped that the entire run would take about ten days but now it’s looking like it could be 12-13.  Not great.

Conditions were a bit sporty last night but not too bad with gusty winds going rapidly from 10kts to 20 and back again, hour after hour.  And, we had a 2kt current on our nose so progress was slow.

However, things have settled down now as we slowly sail east trying not to go too far before we head south again. 

The guys up in the cockpit enjoying a nice day and not trying to think too much about how much farther we still have to go.

The biggest problem is that there is a low forming to the south, between us and Bermuda that is expected to bring winds in the 30-40kt range with gusts in squalls to 50kts.  Not great and gusts at those levels can break stuff.

In order to avoid all of this, Chris said that we need to stay north of 37 degrees north until the front passes, perhaps sometime overnight on Sunday.  As it’s not even noon on Saturday and we are at that latitude, we decided just to sail east to kill time.

As we are already as far south as he recommends, while we wait for the front to pass, we have to sail perpendicular to our intended course and wait until things improve to the south.

We have been in a similar position over the years and a number of times over the years and delays where we sail east, instead of south, can add days to a trip.   Once we begin to head south again, there will be a few days of motoring and that’s slow too as I can’t really go much faster than 6kts without burning a lot of fuel. Sailing in good conditions are generally in the 8-9kt range, a lot faster than motoring.

The good news is that once we reach the easterly trades, perhaps 600 miles north of Antigua,  we should be able to cover a lot of ground with upwards of 20kts on the beam which may allow us to make nearly 200 miles a day.   On our run south last fall, we had a number of days where we came close to that distance so it might happen. 

So, here we are, jogging to the east, waiting for better conditions. 

Other than a frustrating delay, all remains good aboard Pandora, even if things are a bit trashed in her cabin. 

The US weather model, GFS, says that the low won’t clear out until early Monday morning while the European model says that things should clear up perhaps 12 hours sooner.   Chris often favors the Euro so fingers crossed.  He did say that he’d send out an update later today so we will see how things develop. It would be good to get moving in the right direction, sooner than later.

With Starlink, which is working pretty well, we can also download the models and see them ourselves.  Seeing the graphics does make it a lot easier to interpret what Chris is suggesting. 

Here’s what he said about the risk of being too far south, too soon.

“There is a large potential risk for vessels to lie S of 37N or 37-30N Sun5, and with favorable weather thereafter, no need to assume that risk.” 

I’m taking his advice.

Today’s sunrise, over a calm sea and us in the middle of the Gulf Stream was beautiful.

Matt is all better now.  Two days of not feeling particularly well but now back in the swing. 

He had been turning up his nose at most food choices and I was a little fearful that perhaps he was what we might call a “selective eater”.  Nope, not at all now that he is feeling his old self.  (not as old as me and Peter, BTW) It does seem that he is an omnivore with a preference for M&Ms and Kit Kats 🙂

Anyway, we crossed the Gulf Stream overnight and could hardly tell except that the water temperature abruptly went from the low 60s to the 80s.  When I crossed the Stream in the spring it was very bumpy with a 30-40 knot southerly wind with gusts to 50.  With less than ten knots of wind last night, not quite the same.

We turned on the engine yesterday at noon and here we are, more than 24 hours later and still motoring along.  Chris Parker had given us coordinates for a very narrow favorable part of an eddy that was supposed to give us a push of a few knots.  However, we did not find it and instead have a persistent 1-2kt current against us.

However, that is not so bad, setting aside the endless motoring and little to no wind, as there is expected to be an area to the south of us in a few days that will bring near gale force winds from the NE.  The wind direction is not expected to be a problem as it will have us on a broad reach, but strong winds 30-40kts and add in some squalls to 50kts and it’s something that we’d prefer to avoid. 

By getting near Bermuda a bit later will help us avoid those conditions, I hope.  I will say that the forecasts have been changing virtually every day but the expected winds between here in Antigua should be mostly favorable, at least when there is wind. 

As of now, we expect to be motoring off and on for at least an additional 40-50 hours with intervals of good sailing in between.  With some luck we will hit the easterly trade winds about 300-400 miles north of Antigua and they will, hopefully, be under 20kts on the beam.  Fingers crossed.

We do not expect to need a stop in Bermuda as we have plenty of fuel.  I really do not know exactly what my fuel burn rate is with the new prop, but I expect it to be a bit higher than with the last propeller. 

With an estimate of say, .8GPH, I should be able to get at least 220 hours of motoring out of 180 gallons of fuel and the most motoring I have ever done on this run was 110 hours and that was on a trip with a lot more light air and dead zones than this run is expected to have. 

So far, I have motored a lot but I have only gone less than 300 miles and there is still a lot more distance to cover. 

Of course, forecasts change and perhaps this one will as the models don’t agree anyway. Key to keep our options open and not go to fast. What will happen? Time will tell…

However, I am a card-carrying member of the “cup is half full club”, so it’s going to be just fine. 

Perhaps it is too soon to say that we will have an uneventful trip, but it is day three and all is well with Pandora and crew.

It’s Thursday afternoon and we are nearly 200 miles into our trip.  That sounds like a long way but when you consider that the entire trip, not counting adverse currents that will slow us down, is about 1,550 miles. we are barely into it.

Put it another way and we are less than 15% of the way to Antigua.  To look at the chart, the distance we have covered is painfully small, considering how much lays ahead of us.

We left the Essex Yacht Club at 09:00 yesterday and made our way down the 6 miles to the river mouth and into Long Island Sound.  It was a dreary morning, cloudy with a light mist.

As we passed out of The Sound and rounded Montauk light.  The wind picked up from the ENE, putting us on a deep broad reach in 20-25kts.  That point of sail is not very comfortable and after a few hours Matt was feeling pretty uncomfortable and ended up “feeding the fish” more than a few times. 

It wasn’t until about 04:00 today that he was able to hold down something so that he could take a Stugeron, for the nausea, which seemed to work pretty well for him. 

Here he is, lounging and reading a book. 

A few hours ago we turned on the engine and it looks like we will be motoring until sometime tomorrow.  The computer weather app suggests that we will end up motoring about 2.5 days out of the 10 so days or so that it should take us to make the run to Antigua.  That’s about right as I have taken as little as 10 days and as much as 13 to do the southbound run.

Peter is on watch now and dressed for the chilly temps. 

It will be quite chilly, until we reach the Gulf Stream, with 80 degree water.  To keep the chill at bay, I cranked up the diesel heater.  It worked well and kept the chill off.   The water north of the GS is about 60 and the transition from cold to tropical is quite abrupt.

For the rest of the run we expect to have wind peaking in the high 20s to low 30s and also periods of no wind.   Overall, I expect that we will likely motor some 75 hours, about what I would expect for this run.   The good news is that we are hopeful that we will be able to head in mostly a straight line, nearly due south so not a lot of meandering around, I hope.

This is the first run where I have had Starlink when the service had been well worked out.  On the run north last spring, it was all new and the usage plans were not well defined.  For the run north, I signed up for a maritime plan at a cost of $250/month for not a lot of data and after that $2GB.  I didn’t really understand the plan and ended up using up all my data and then some, racking up a $350 bill for the month.   I now understand that I don’t have to change to a maritime plan and can just opt in for the $2GB on top of my normal $150/month mobile plan.  We will see how that works out.

Yesterday when we were still fairly close to land, the normal plan was working fine but earlier this morning, when I was on my 04:00 to 08:00 watch, I wanted to “toggle” on the $2GB ocean option but could not identify how to do it on the mobile app.  After about 2 hours of messing around, Matt suggested that I try going to the Starlink website on my browser and see if I could make the change there.  While the internet was blocked, the Starlink website itself was not, and we were in business.

The unit is still slow to acquire satellites but is working much better than last spring.  I understand that Starlink has modified the software so that the RV unit that I have, as opposed to the Maritime unit that uses twice the power, works better now on the ocean and “in motion”.

We will see how that goes for the rest of the trip but putting up this post is evidence that the unit is working.  What I don’t know yet, is how far that $2/GB will go and what my bill this month will end up being.  Details to come on that front.

It’s been pretty uneventful with the exception of it being quite rolly with large swells along with a number of mild squalls last night with heavy rain.   I am expecting that the next day or so of motoring will end when the wind picks up later tomorrow, into the 20s. 

So, one day into our run and not a lot to report.  Let’s hope that continues.

At the very least, we left, finally…

It’s October 31st and the weather for tomorrow, the first of November, our nominal departure date, bound for Antigua, is expected to be favorable for a departure. Well, if you discount the possible hurricane that may spool up in the Gulf of Mexico next week make us think twice about heading out. We will know for sure what the plans are this evening when we get a final briefing from our weather router, Chris Parker.

Pandora is ready to go and as much as I am bummed not to be in Hampton with most of the boats in the Salty Dawg Caribbean Rally, it is very nice having her near me here in CT. She is at the Essex Yacht Club dock, where I have been working on her for the last week or so, bringing stuff aboard and taking stuff off that has accumulated over the years and is probably no longer needed. The weather on Saturday was amazing, the temperature was nearly 80 and sunny. Not so much for the last few days when the temperatures plummeted into the 40s with rain.

In case you are wondering, the white stuff on the lawn isn’t snow although today, it is cold and but not cold enough to snow. Nope, those are white rose petals from a wedding held there a few days ago.

There’s not a lot going on around her and most of the moorings in the harbor are now vacant.

Much of last week was consumed by last minute items, moving stuff aboard, removing stuff that we don’t expect to need this season. I was also looking for a persistent leak and removed forward hatch and re-bedding it, with the hope of stopping an illusive dripping down the cabin side when the going gets sporty. Alas, after removing it and cleaning up all the old adhesive caulk, I could not find any evidence of moisture. Big hole in the foredeck with the hatch removed. I heard that a large catamaran sunk last week when two of her hatches failed off of Cape Hatteras. I can imagine that a boat would sink PDQ if a hole opened up on this scale.

After hours of removal, prep and reassembly, I realized that this wasn’t the source of the leak and finally found it in a nearby turning block for the jib. I am doubtful that I caught the only remaining leak but hope that I’m getting close. When I purchased the boat the seller told me of “THE leak”, the only one on the boat. HA! Seven years later, I am still identifying new leaks. I do put a lot of miles on Pandora each season so things loosen up. I expect that he wasn’t aware of some of the leaks as they only come to light when the going really gets sporty. Not sure I will ever completely conquer the leaks but I am pretty close, I hope, and probably more on top of the problem than most owners.

Another thing that I have been thinking about is Starlink and how that technology has changed the cruising game. Some years ago I was on a delivery of a large yacht from The Hamptons to Ft Lauderdale and was blown away to find that the yacht had broadband on board. I had a blast putting up posts with photos and never imagined that one day that would be possible aboard Pandora. However, that system cost upwards of $5,000 a month, certainly above my paygrade.

Well, now with Starlink, we have a “sort of” affordable option at $150/month and $2GB for data when underway at sea. Yes, it does add up but the service is AWESOME! and Pandora, along with just about every other boat in the rally, has Starlink aboard. This system, developed by Elon Musk, offers relatively low cost broadband and it is generally fast, and often faster than our cable service at home.

I first heard about the system last October when a boat in the rally joined a webinar from offshore, complete with high quality video. I didn’t think much about it until I was in Antigua a few weeks later and saw one of the antennas on a friend’s boat. I just had to have one and found myself as one of the “early adopters.” I was able to get a fellow Dawg to deliver one in their luggage from the US.

Here we are a year later and nearly every boat in the rally has the service. I still have the older style RV antenna and hope that it will work better this fall than it did on my way north last spring when I had trouble keeping a signal.

I have heard that the RV version that I have has better reception now as the software has been improved. I had the opportunity to upgrade to a maritime dish but the power consumption was twice as much and the unit is twice the size of what I have now. And, rumor has it that there will be a more efficient antenna out soon that isn’t a lot larger than the one I have.

Here’s the antenna mounted aft, adjacent to my solar panels.

Perhaps a better view of how it is situated aft to port.

So, we will have to see how well the service works on this run. Fingers crossed as I have not activated my Iridium Go, as that service costs about as much and is REALLY SLOW.

Well, hopefully, tomorrow, Wednesday morning, we will head out, bound for Antigua. It is possible that we will head for Bermuda in case we need to stop and wait for better conditions.

I’ll know more this evening when we get our weather briefing.

You can follow the fleet at this link, compliments of Salty Dawg and Predict Wind, and see the more than 90 boats that will be making their way south to either Antigua or The Bahamas, departing from Hampton VA and Newport, RI and of course, Pandora from Essex. Note that a number of boats have already left and there’s plenty to follow.

I have been working hard to get Pandora ready for the run to Antigua as part of the Salty Dawg Rally to the Caribbean for months now, always thinking that I would be heading to Hampton for the departure, as has been the case for years now. This year’s rally is a big one, with 96 boats heading south, mostly from Hampton, with about 15 from Newport.

As of a month ago, I realized that I was not going to be able to make it to Hampton, due to some mechanical issues with Pandora, discussed in prior posts, and decided, somewhat reluctantly I’ll admit, that I’d be heading out directly from Essex CT, on the CT River.

I say “reluctantly” as I, and many others, view a departure from the NE US as potentially more difficult than from Hampton, near the mouth of the Chesapeake, as more difficult, primarily as it takes a lot longer to get to the south side of the Gulf Stream from here than from farther south.

The Caribbean cruising legend and author Don Street, once said that leaving from Newport in November to head to the Caribbean was like “playing Russian roulette” given the uncertainty of the weather that time of year so while I have considered departing from here in the past, I have always headed south to Hampton or left earlier in the season. This years departure for Antigua will be my first from the area.

On Monday evening we had our first long range weather briefing with Chris Parker who painted a somewhat bleak picture of what the run would be like, regardless of the choice of departure point.

The problem is that the trade winds are expected to be elevated, making for a very sporty trip, south of Bermuda. Normally the departure from Hampton is easier than from New England but this year it looks like the New England run might be easier. But “easier” is only in comparison to Hampton and while I am encouraged, it is still uncertain and subject to change. Not the least of it is the continued presence of hurricane Tammy, who is churning her way northward as I write this.

However, I may have to leave a few days early to avoid what will be very strong northerly winds beginning on Tuesday and filling south the next day.

This is what the weather looks like today, 4 days from our estimated departure. You can see that hurricane Tammy is churning her way northward. The line from Essex represents the course to Bermuda, where I am likely to stop for a few days. Note that “red” in the following slides are strong winds, think 20-30kts and higher, and blue, no wind.

If you look forward to Saturday morning, when we are currently considering beginning the run, there is very little wind suggesting that we will be motoring much of 650 miles to Bermuda. However, at that time Tammy will be right over Bermuda. Not good to be heading south when she is moving north.

The current forecast suggests that we must arrive in Bermuda by late on Tuesday in order to get ahead of some very strong northerly winds. These winds are expected to fill in on Wednesday but of course that is a week out so the forecast could very well change but right now it looks like “threading the needle”.

I would very much like to leave on Sunday or later to give Tammy a chance to GO AWAY, but we will have to see how things develop over the next few days on the weather front. The reason, although not the only one, is that October 28th is the date of Brenda’s and my first date, a walk in the woods, if you are curious, way back in 1972, 50 years ago.

For the last dozen or so years, with only one exception during the pandemic, Brenda and I have NOT been together on that date, and I was so hoping that I would be this year.

However, it’s a long way to Antigua and I really want to do whatever I can to make it a safe and easy run. Fortunately Brenda understands that too.

And, speaking of 50 years ago. I took this photo when we became engaged. Who’da guessed she’d stay with me…

And while I soak myself in nostalgia, I have this photo on my phone as the background image. It was taken aboard the Bluenose II schooner in Lunenburg NS when Brenda and I vacationed there. That was right after we were married and before we even had our first boat. It’s one of my favorite photos of her. What a babe! Oh yeah, she knitted that sweater. It’s still in our “hope chest”, I believe. BTW, she still knits like a fiend…

So, will I be home for that special day? Who knows, and one can hope that I will get some good news at our next weather briefing and will be able to be home on the anniversary of our first date 50 years ago Saturday.

After a decade of running north and south each season, like a migrating bird, our plan is to take Pandora to Trinidad next spring to have some work done on her decks. It will be a big job but would be even more crazy expensive if we were to have the work done here in the US. I have friends that have been keeping their boats in Trinidad for years and rave about the quality of the work. The group that I hope will do some fiber glassing and paint call themselves “Perfect Finish”. From what I have heard, it’s not just a name. More to come on that.

Keeping Pandora south next summer will come as a welcome break from the seasonal anxiety about weather and of course, missing out on our “special day”.

Our next weather briefing is Thursday afternoon. Perhaps the news will be good for me and Brenda. And, of course, a good passage south to Antigua.