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It’s Wednesday morning, our fourth day at sea.   Yesterday wasn’t a great day as there wasn’t much wind at all.  No make that NO wind, so we had to motor all day.

And, the forecast wasn’t looking good either with  Chris suggesting that we won’t see many days of favorable winds for much of the trip.

As a result, I was becoming a bit preoccupied with the possibility of running out of fuel.   No, we haven’t put much of a dent in our fuel with less than 24 hours on the meter since leaving Hampton, but it’s impossible not to project out when the forecast suggests that we won’t reach consistent trade winds until a few hundred miles from Antigua.  Amazingly, Pandora carries enough fuel to motor over 1,000 miles but that’s still not enough to get us there if we have to motor a week or more.

One of the great things about my new Iridium Go unit is that I am able to download weather GRIBS every 12 hours that gives me a forecast out a week so between those and the written forecasts from Chris Parker, the weather router, we have a fairly good feel for what is in store.

However, with such a huge gale coming up the US east coast this week, the effect on the wind to the south is a bit hard to predict.  As I mentioned previously, when there is a big low in the North Atlantic, those lovely easterly trade winds are suppressed.  In this case, the easterlies become southerlies, keeping us from pointing in the direction that we need to go.

Another thing that happens is that the winds tend to go away, so we have to spend a lot more time motoring.

Over the last 24 hours the forecast, now that we are south of Bermuda, is becoming somewhat more clear and suggests we will not encounter quite so much light air or wind on the nose.  And, the trades might also kick in a bit sooner.

All and all, things are looking brighter for a good run, well mostly good, from here on out.   Yes, we expect to be doing some sailing to the east, not good, but that might not be for as long as expected and then we should be able to turn south, perhaps over the weekend, and continue on our way to Antigua.

The biggest issue we face is a delay in our arrival and I’d really like to think that we can get to Antigua by the 10th or so and beat Brenda and Jane, Peter’s wife, who arrive on the 12th.

One way or the other, wind or not, favorable wind direction or not, we can sail and motor a good distance and we will eventually get there.

I am already looking forward to a “tot” of rum with my crew and tying up in the Dockyard in English Harbor.

So as we inch our way south and closer to Antigua, I think it’s safe to say that “it’s getting a little better every day”.  Let’s hope that the forecast continues to improve.

So that’s about it from Pandora as we sometimes motor sail, sometime sail on our way south.  It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood, the sky is blue and the seas are calm.  Not bad for a day on the water.

One more thing.  Peter has proposed a wager on our arrival time and the one that best guesses the time when we drop anchor in English Harbor gets, well nothing.  However, the one of us that is most off buys the first round of drinks.

I’m on it.

It’s Tuesday morning and we are motoring along in conditions that are more like Long Island Sound on an August day than ocean sailing hundreds of miles from land.   The wind has become very light and is likely to stay that way for at least another day.

In the next day or so, we will reach a point during the trip when we are the farthest from land and in every direction land will be some 500 miles.  There’s not much out here except the occasional ship that passes on the horizon or dolphins that come up to check us out for a few moments before moving on.

Currently, we are nearly 300 miles from Bermuda and even farther from the US.  Perhaps more importantly, we are about 1/3 of the way to Antigua.  But not so fast, as some pretty impressive headwinds will be arriving in a few days so we will have to tack to the east and even northeast for perhaps several days while we wait for more favorable conditions.  Sadly, when we tack we will actually be heading away from our destination, and that will be very frustrating.

The big driver of the adverse winds that will blow from the SE and keep us from making headway toward Antigua, is a major storm off of the US east coast that is expected to form in the next few days.  That storm, or low, will suck wind in from thousands of miles in every direction and disrupt the easterly trade winds that we would normally encounter as we get closer to the Caribbean .

While a big storm off of the east coast brings nasty weather to the US and Bahamas, those same winds disrupt the trade winds and generally weaken the winds down south.

For now, we are motoring in very light winds, heading in the general direction of the Caribbean.  However, in a few days we will have to head on a course that will likely be perpendicular to our destination and while we will be moving along nicely, we will be in more of a holding pattern, waiting for the winds to shift and allow us to turn south again.

I really do hope we can avoid that multi day delay but we won’t know for sure by Thursday.

Another fear is that we will not have enough fuel to make the rest of the trip but I think that we will do well as we did a good amount of “easting”, under sail, over the first few days of the trip and resisted the temptation to head south.   I was pretty sure that a direct run south might not be in our best interest and I am glad that I took that approach as being a bit farther east than some in the fleet will allow us a better angle for sailing south.

As a general rule, you want to do as much easting as possible early in the trip so that when the easterly trades fill in, you have a comfortable point of sail.

Well, so far so good.

So, when will we get to Antigua?  I actually have no idea as it is likely that we will spend a few days sailing perpendicular to Antigua, and that will feel like “you can’t get there from here”, well, at least until the trades fill in again and we can make our way south for the remaining distance to Antigua.

All and all, I can see us arriving in Antigua, but when that is will remain a mystery for now.  Being at sea is a lot different than being in a car with a GPS that calculates the arrival time within minutes.  While roads can become congested, they generally don’t go away.  At sea, when the wind blows from where you want to go, there is just no way to get there until conditions improve.

So, for now when I wonder when we will arrive all I can say is that we will but who knows when.

One thing for certain is that for the part of the trip when the wind is on our nose, the phrase that will come to mind is more like “you can’t get there from here”.

Let’s hope that part of the trip is short.

This is our second full day out and we have gone about 300 miles, not a lot.  This first 24 hours was pretty sporty but now we are moving along at a more leisurely pace of between 5-7kts in basically an easterly direction.

Whenever you head to sea you can only really know what to expect for the first 3-5 days and after that, it’s hard to know as the forecasts just aren’t accurate that far into the future.

We expect to head into an area of very light wind that will likely persist for a few days and after that, perhaps winds that will be pretty much on the nose.  Hopefully those SE winds won’t be too strong and we really don’t know what we will encounter after that.

Normally, the prevailing winds in the northern Caribbean are from the east, sometimes from the ENE and others, the ESE but mostly from the east.  But, given the expectation that we will be doing a good deal of motoring, we have to conserve fuel as best as we can now, even if that means moving along more slowly than we’d like.

Last night was frustrating as the wind dropped a good deal and then veered from the south to the north with a good amount of time directly behind us.  running before relatively light winds in a confused sea was frustrating.  Fortunately, things have improved.

With conditions more settled now but with light winds, I decided to try and use the Hydrovane wind vane stearing unit, and that’s going pretty well.  I haven’t had a great deal of luck with it in the past but now it’s going better.

I am waiting to get an updated weather forecast and will have a better feel for where I should head next.   For the moment, I am trying to make as much easting as I can to take advantage of the easterly trade winds when they finally fill in.

I guess that’s about it for now.

Wish us luck as we continue to plug along.

It’s Sunday morning and we have entered the Gulf Stream, about 100 miles from Hampton.

Peter and George arrived at 3:00 yesterday, not a moment too soon, as I had barely finished my preparations for departure.   I took a few minutes to shower and we headed out by 3:30.   This gave us a few hours to get settled before it got dark.

Aside for motoring out of the harbor and into open water, we have been sailing at a brisk pace since our departure, which is great.  So far, we’ve gone nearly 150 miles, about 1/10th of the trip.  It’s good to have some miles “in the bank”.  Being able to sail early in the trip instead of burning precious fuel is good as we really have no idea of what the rest of the run will be like.

The forecast is quite good for the next few days with the wind gradually veering from the SW to NW and becoming lighter.   This suggests that we will be spending a lot of time motoring and we have been advised not to motor much in the early part of the trip to avoid running out of fuel.

Fortunately, Pandora does very well motor sailing in light wind so I can drop the RPM and conserve fuel.  If needed, I should be able to motor for about a week, 24 hours a day before I run out of fuel.

It is possible that 6 days of motoring could be required but it’s hard to say and while we have a pretty good feel for what the next few days will bring, 5 days out is just too far to have any confidence in the forecast.

The window to depart was from Saturday morning through Sunday night but getting out sooner was better for sailing so out we went.

There are a good number of boats still in Hampton, some leaving today and others that just weren’t ready to go.   In some cases, it was crew, who hadn’t arrived in time, and others, mechanical issues.

We have settled in a bit but there is still along way to go, 1,300 miles, until we arrive in Antigua.

Near or far, it’s good to be underway and I guess we can hope to arrive in Antigua by November 10th or so.

Oh yeah, this post went to Brenda via my Iridium Go, a really neat piece of electronics.  I can send messages, email and also make phone calls that sound as good a local cellular.  I can also download files that look just like the tracking page that you can view on my blog under “where in the world is Pandora”.

That link will show my current track as well as that of all the other boats in the fleet.

I’m still getting the hang of the whole thing but the technology is just amazing.

Well, it looks like we will be heading out on Saturday evening to begin our run to Antigua.

As of last evening, Chris Parker, our weather router, said that the “window” for departing Hampton will be Saturday and Sunday, a shorter window than he saw even one day before.

As I write this it’s raining and very windy with totally nasty weather offshore.  However, as that system moves out conditions will substantially improve, for at least a few days before another front exits the East Coast, bringing with it gales yet again.  Such is late fall weather in the north Atlantic.

My crew for this run, Peter and George are coming in Saturday afternoon so as soon as they step aboard, we’re off and on our way.  I had hoped to spend the night and let them settle in before we headed out but there isn’t time so we’re leaving.  Sorry guys.

The goal is to get as far south as possible by later in the week when all this nasty weather repeats itself near the coast.

In past years, we have been plagued by persistent SE winds onthis run and that made for a frustrating trip but this year is looking like it’s going to be mostly light air and wind behind the beam.  If anything, we are unlikely to have enough wind and Chris feels that we may have to motor for half the trip.

With that in mind, we will have to manage our fuel until we hit the easterly trade winds as we get closer to Antigua.  Motoring a lot on this run is nothing new as I usually put about 100 hours on the engine when I head south.

I won’t go into lots of explanation on the whole fuel management issue as there will be time for that later in the trip.

As in the past, I plan on writing posts as often as I can, every day perhaps, and I may even be able to send a small photo now and again.  The new Iridium satellite unit we have is pretty neat and makes all this stuff much easier than in the past.  I’ll send the files to Brenda and she can put them up on this blog.  I always enjoy sharing our journey with everyone so stand by.

And, as in past years, every boat in the fleet, and there are nearly 80 boats, will show up on a tracking map, complete with wind information.  It’s pretty cool, actually.

Just follow this link to see where everyone is.   This screen shot from today shows just how nasty it is out there right now.  And yes, red isn’t good.  It means really windy.   You can see the fleet clustered in Hampton. Beginning on Saturday you will see the boats move out and begin to head south.  The bulk of the fleet is heading to Antigua and some to the Bahamas.

Still lots of little things to get done before leaving but I’m on it.

After so many months of planning I am really happy that it’s finally time…