It’s Friday morning and we are about a third of the way to the BVI with an average speed for the first 400 miles of about 7.5kts.  That’s not too shabby but an important speed as that’s what it will take for us to reach an important waypoint off of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic where we have been told we will run into a cold front on Monday.

The plan is for us to outrun the front by being to a position south of the frontal boundary that is expected to stretch from approximately 24 degrees north and 65 degrees west to 22 degrees north to 68 degrees west near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.  When we left Beaufort on Wednesday morning Chris Parker, our weather router, predicted that we’d have to be past that line by about 18:00 on Monday in order to outrun the front and gale force winds in excess of 30kts with gusts in the 40-45 range.

To be able to outrun the front we would have to maintain an average speed of 7.5kts overall.  The good news is that as of today we have been able to do that but now the forecast has changed with the front expected to be in our way about 12 hours sooner.  This means that we will likely encounter strong winds for about 12 hours or so.   The good news is that the wind will be behind us from the NE but may be pushing waves in the 15-20′ range.  However, they shouldn’t persist for that long as we are able to pass the front.  Unfortunately, it is possible that the front will be moving south at about the same speed we will be going so I guess that we will just have to be prepared and see what happens as we get closer to Monday and the front.

Of course, that’s a long way off and much can change.  I’ll be speaking with Chris again on Saturday, tomorrow morning to see what, if anything, has changed.

Anyway, I left CT on Monday to drive to Beaufort, an 11-12 hour ride.  With stops and some “coming home from grandmas home” traffic near Baltimore, the ride ended up taking about 14 hours with me arriving at Pandora around 01:30 on Tuesday morning.  I was really tired.

Tuesday was spent scrambling around getting last minute provisions in advance of the arrival of my crew.  Somehow we got everything done and left the dock to get fuel by 07:30 on Wednesday.  What a rush, but in a bad way.  I was exhausted.

As I mentioned in a recent post, I had been frustrated by a total lack of communication from the guy working on the replacement ports on the boat and while the job was “finished” I have to say that his work was pretty rough and in the case of the cockpit window, very messy.  I also noticed that while the cockpit window was out it must have rained as there was some water damage on a bulkhead in the aft cabin. I am hopeful that I will be able to clean it up and perhaps bleach the wood to get the black staining out.  Fingers crossed.  However, rest assured that I will not pay the full invoice, if I ever get it, and may opt to say “sorry pal” and not pay anything at all to cover the pain and suffering along with the damage to the woodwork below.  I am sure that he put in several days of work and won’t be happy.  However, he knew of my departure plans and did not submit a bill to the marina or me by that time and it was clear that the job was not even completed.  Fortunately, the work is at least watertight so I can wait till a future date to fix any remaining issues.   So much for “remote control” of boat repairs.

Oh yeah, remember the other job?  You know, the one to install the new charger/inverter?  That was done but, as I had feared, with all the other equipment that he had to remove in the nav-station to get the new unit in place, he was, shall we say, less than meticulous in labeling wires that needed to be reconnected when he was done.  So, while the unit itself works, the 110 outlet on the nav station doesn’t work now and the wire itself leading to the plug doesn’t have power at all.  Who knows how hard it’s going to be to trace down that problem.   That’s disappointing.  However, not nearly as frustrating as the fact that he had not reconnected the SSB wiring correctly so I was unable to use my radio to get an updated weather forecast from Chris on Tuesday.   The SSB email modem was also reinstalled incorrectly.  Between the two units it took me until Wednesday evening before it was all sorted out.  Very frustrating.  And to make matters worse, it was very rough so trying to sort through problems while bouncing around in large seas was not pleasant at all.  Chris Parker was so concerned that he had not heard from me that he contacted Brenda.

Fortunately, Brenda knew what was going on as I had texted her on my new Delorme tracker to let her know what the problem was.  I can only think what Brenda would have done if she had not heard from me.  It would have been terribly upsetting.

This experience, once again, reinforces my feeling that it is critical that I do as much work on Pandora as possible myself so that when things go wrong, I can fix them.   Better yet, do the work the right way first and there won’t be a need to fix things, especially when I am at sea.

And speaking of “at sea”, we got off to a really rough start but those strong winds and waves made for some very fast sailing with speeds sometimes approaching 10kts and even higher a few times.   It was pretty amazing to see the waves roll by with the phosphorescence of the breaking crests glowing green in the darkness.   I don’t believe that Brenda would have been pleased at all with the conditions.   Nope, not a bit.

So, as I write this we are sailing along on a close reach at about 7.5kts, the speed that we must maintain if we have any hope of outrunning that front.  Chris thinks that the wind will die later today and then pick up from a SE direction.  Anyway, our trip so far has been fairly uneventful, setting aside the “technical issues” I have gone on and on about, if a bit “sporty” for the first 24 hours.

When the wind dies later today I think that we will all shower in the cockpit and perhaps do a bit of fishing.

Interestingly, this trip at 1,200 miles is about 150 longer than any I have taken to date without stopping.  It will also take me farther from shore than I have been, about 300 miles from land.   Actually, as I write this, we are at the point furthest from land that we will be for the trip.

Well, we did get underway as planned even if I was exhausted from a full day of driving followed by a day of frantic provisioning in anticipation of my crew arriving on Tuesday afternoon.   I don’t know why it is that all my trips involve a few days of frantic preparation and some time spent sorting out problems that crop up after we are underway. Well, at least I am usually am able to “sort.”   I guess that’s what sailing is all about.

Well, that’s my report.  And don’t forget that you can follow our progress by clicking on the button “Where in the World is Pandora.”

Stay tuned.

That’s all for now.

I spoke with Chris Parker today and his original recommendation that Wednesday the 4th will be good for a departure to head to the BVI still stands. This is actually a surprise to me as long range forecasts usually don’t turn out to be quite the same when they are no longer long range.

So, here’s what Chris thinks things will look like for next week.

I could leave either Wednesday or Thursday from Beaufort but a departure on Wednesday puts us south of the Gulf Stream in advance of strong NW winds in the range of 20-30kts with higher gusts that we’d likely see with a Thursday departure.

By leaving Wednesday morning we’d be ahead of this and probably will see winds in the 20s out of the west as we cross the Gulf Stream.   By evening, and we’d be across the Gulf Stream by that point, we expect to have NW winds in the 20-25 range that should carry through Thursday morning.

After that the winds should go light with a continued NW component followed by light winds for Saturday and Sunday, suggesting a few days of motoring.

On Monday it looks like NW winds will build again which will allow us to carry the rumbline all the way south to the BVI.   This is in contrast to the “normal” run to the eastern Caribbean that generally calls for a lot of easting toward Bermuda prior to heading south when we reach the easterly trade winds.  Of course, a straight shot is also shorter which may mean a total run of a week or perhaps a day or two longer if we have to motor a lot.

However, if we are delayed and can’t get going on Wednesday we will probably have to wait until the weekend or next Monday to avoid the next front that rolls off the coast after Wednesday.

And speaking of delays, remember the “unfinished” work  on Pandora that I wrote about the other day?   As I mentioned in my last post, I was able to find someone to look in on Pandora on Friday who told me that some of the work was completed but that the cockpit glazing was not in place.  Yesterday I finally heard from the yard owners, who are now back from their vacation.   They reported that the cockpit glazing is now in place so we should be “good to go” unless something else comes up.   I still don’t understand why the sub that is doing the work would not return my calls, or those from the marina.   He still hasn’t contacted me, work done or not.

As of now, it looks like Pandora and her crew are in for a good run with good conditions for a few days of easy fast sailing when we get underway. This is very good as Dave and Jerry are not familiar with Pandora so I don’t want to “jump into the fire” right away with heavy conditions.

I fully expect to see some “sporty” conditions during the trip but it would be best to have that later in the run when we are more settled in to our routine.

While it’s supposed to rain on Monday and Tuesday, it looks like the high on Wednesday will be around 60 degrees which is a lot more appealing than being out in near freezing conditions as we begin our run.

Of course, every post should have at least one photo so how about a sunset photo as Brenda and I entered Cuban waters last March?  That seems like a long time ago.  What an amazing trip that turned out to be. Yes, I expect that this winter will be filled with wonder too as have the last 4 for me and Brenda.

And, speaking of “wonder”, how about a photo from yesterday of our granddaughter Tori in her “Pandora crew” shirt?   She’s pretty excited about our trip too. I really feel so sorry for all the mothers who’s children are not as cute Tori.   Yes, and when it comes to “wonder” I sure hope that I don’t find my self “wondering” why I decided to make a run from the US to the BVI, beginning in January”.   I guess you will have to stay tuned to see how it goes.

So, here’s to a terrific run next week.    Yes, indeed, it looks like Wednesday’s the day.

Don’t forget to check out “Where in the World is Pandora” on this page.  I’ll have my new tracker working by Tuesday so you will be able to see where we are at most any time all the way.

I’ll be back in a few days with an update.

Happy New Year!  It’s going to be great, I’m sure.

It’s Friday, Christmas has come and gone and I am due to jump in  a rental car on Monday to drive to Beaufort.    With less than a week to go, it does look like the weather will support a mid-week departure for the BVI but, as is so often the case,  there is one “little” problem.

When I dropped Pandora in Beaufort in early November I contracted with the yard to get some projects done.  That work included some engine work, a new charger/inverter, new mid cabin port glazing on ports that had developed chronic leaks as well as new bedding on the large glass dodger windows.

With two months to get the work done the answer was “no problem mon”.    Alas, not quite.  The engine and electrical work were done in short order but the windows?  Well, let’s just say that getting information on the status of the job has been nearly impossible.  I was getting so frustrated yesterday, with less than a week to go, that I finally had to call on the local SSCA Cruising Station host in Beaufort to get in his car to check out the status of the boat for me.     As expected, Michael dropped everything and went to the yard to check on the work.

The good news is that the large ports in the cabin are nearly complete but the cockpit window is not yet done, has been removed and is lying in the cockpit.  I have called the “closed for the holidays” yard off and on all week and hopefully will have confirmation soon that the work will be done in time.

I guess that it is experiences like this that make me determined to do most of the work on Pandora myself but sometimes calling in experts, as in this case, is the only option.

Anyway, this is the sort of thing what keeps me up at night but back to the subject of this post.   When I talk about next week’s trip to the BVI, a question that inevitably comes up is “How long will it take?”  Of course, that’s a complicated question that involves many factors, the first of which being “When will we leave?”.    And, as I have mentioned above, that’s currently a big question.

However, setting that aside, the next question is about the wind and that’s a big “Who knows?” too.    All of the above aside, another question and one that is in the minds of all sailors and designers, is “How fast is she?”   Below are a set of “polars”, a graph of predicted performance numbers for the Aerodyne 47 design.  It’s a bit confusing to read but worth digging into.

If you find it easier to read a table, here are the raw numbers.

Simply stated, the red lines are wind speed which is overlaid on compass rose that shows a theoretical speed at any given wind angle and speed.    Rodger Martin, the designer, just sent them to me and at first glance I would say that my experience, with the understanding that these are for a boat that’s not as heavily laden with cruising gear as Pandora are consistent with the charts.  The stated numbers are in the ballpark if a it high.  However, when you consider that she has a LOT of stuff on board, they are pretty close.  In my experience, with about 15kts on the beam, that she runs in the 7-8kt range.  The numbers are impressive.  Nice design Rodger!

So, armed with these numbers, the question is “How long will our 1,500 mile run take?   Who knows but, for sure, there will be times when we will say “wow, she’s fast”.   Other than that? Who knows.  Besides, she’s a sailboat and Brenda’s opinion on the subject is something like “fast or slow, it’s sort of like watching grass grow”.   Oh well, I guess.  Seems fast to me.

So, now long will the trip take?  I’m betting around 9 days, give or take a day.   I guess we will have to wait and see.  For now, I’ll just have to hope that the work on Pandora is completed when I arrive or IT’S GOING TO TAKE A LOT LONGER.

With New Years Eve just a few days away, I guess I’ll close with the hope and expectation that 2017 will be a terrific year.

Fingers crossed for now.   And, as Brenda has said, “Bob and the dog, ever hopeful.”

Yes, that’s me.  Can I have a cookie?

 

 

 

After weeks, no make that months, of thinking about and planning for my run from Beaufort NC to the BVI I can’t believe that it looks like it’s going to happen next week.

I spoke to Chris Parker, the weather router that we use, today and he feels that there will be a window, perhaps on Wednesday January 4th for us to leave Beaufort and begin our run south.  The window actually looks pretty good with 4-5 days of north component winds to get us across the Gulf Stream and far enough east and south before the next cold front rolls off  of the coast at the end of next week.

Yes, crossing the Gulf Stream with a northerly component wind isn’t great fun, but I expect that Chris Parker feels that Pandora and her crew can take it and that it probably won’t be a particularly strong wind.  Chris knows that I am open to more “sporty” conditions with crew than when I am when Brenda’s aboard and he is aware that, in this case, Brenda will be joining Pandora in the BVI via the “silver bird” after Pandora’s all settled and cleaned up from the trip.  Actually, I plan to fly back home once more to see our new granddaughter and to get the house closed up and winterized for the time we will be away.

On the remote chance that you have forgotten what our new granddaughter looks like, here’s Tori on Christmas day, wearing the outfit that Brenda knitted.

As I told her about our plans for the winter, you can see that the was plainly gripped by my tale of adventure.
Unfortunately, after the second set of slides I think I lost her.  Oh well, perhaps it was the review of GRIB files that did her in, like my last post.

Anyway, as Tori said, “that’s great Grampy.   Talk to Ya Ya.  I’m taking a nap right now.” (Ya Ya is Tori speak, we hope, for Grandma Brenda,

So, back to my story.  It’s interesting how things creep up on you after months of planning when all of a sudden it’s all a mad rush getting ready to leave.  It also seems like whatever day I pick the best “window” always comes a day or so earlier than I’d like.  And as always, if we miss this window, Chris said that we’d likely have to wait a full week until the next window opens up.   Yep, gotta make that window so Wednesday sounds about right.   Car rental set?  Check…  Mountain of crap to bring down?  Check…  Summer clothes?  Double check… AWESOME!

So, while I have already purchased a lot of stuff for the trip, it’s time to think hard about what else I’ll need to pick up and bring along for the run..

And speaking of mountains of crap.  It’s amazing how much has accumulated in my office.   Somehow I have to organize it all in a way that I can stow aboard when I get to Beaufort.I guess that’s about all for now.  The plan, as of now, will be for me to leave CT on Monday and head directly to Beaufort.  Then my crew will arrive on Tuesday.  As it’s a 12 hour drive for me, I’ll be pretty bushed when I arrive and will only have about a half day to get settled.

So, there you have it.  Not a lot to say but somehow I managed to write over 600 words on the subject.

Let’s hope that everything goes according to plan.  I’ll be talking to Chris Parker again on Thursday so I’ll likely do another update at that time.

Details to come, as always.

 

Well, here we are on December 17th, a little more than two weeks until I rendezvous with my crew in Beaufort to, as Chris Parker says, “exit the US East Coast” to head down to the BVI.

I am very lucky to have a great crew for the run.  Leading the charge will be Jim, who’s sailed something like 5,000 miles with me, the most of anybody except Brenda, of course.   And, it was through Jim that I was introduced to Jerry and Dave, also from Jim’s area in VA.  Jim is a cruiser like me but Jerry and Dave are both racers, inshore and offshore so the combined experience will be good.

My plan is to leave CT on January 2nd with a rental car and make my way south. Along the way I’ll likely stop and see my new Granddaughter Tori (short for Victoria) as I make my way through MD.  She was born December 12th in case you were wondering.  Her father Rob, our oldest, told her about my plans to stop by on my way to Pandora.  At first she said “Grandpy who?”. The she suddenly remembered “Oh, you mean my favorite paternal Grandpy!  Yes, I remember him!”  Can you believe that she already knows the word, paternal?   Smart girl.   We had a onsie made up for her that says “Pandora Crew”.  Good to start the training early.  Picture of her in uniform to come soon.  Right Rob?  I know how much she loves being dressed and changed into new clothes.  All that crying is really her trying to say “TAKE ME SAILING GRANDPY”.  Not certain on the spelling of Grandpy.  Spell check only pulls up Granny and that’s not working for me.

Ok, ok, enough baby pictures but I was talking about crew so Tori counts.  Sorry Jim, she’s going to be serious competition down the road.  Actually, by the time she’s old enough… Well, I don’t want to think about that right now.  I’m thinking one of those peddle boats.  Nooooo…..

I won’t think about that now.  So, back to “exiting the US East Coast”.   Chris Parker, the weather router that we use, does daily weather briefings six days a week and broadcasts on SSB radio as well as on the Web.   We are still a bit far out to know what the weather will be the first week of January when we want to begin our run but it’s not too early to look at some high level trends in east coast weather.

Chris told me that there seems to be a pattern of lows exiting the coast about every five days or so and that they are not terribly strong with winds, say in the under 3o kt range.   Yes, a mere zephyr.  That’s not bad as long as the winds are behind us, which they should be.  Yes, something to wish for.

A few weeks ago Chris told me that he thought that my chances of getting out in the first week of January was about 75%.  Soon we will know.

It’s interesting to see how quickly the wind patterns change day to day.  This may be “more than you want to know about penguins” but what follows is a series of 24 hour wind forecasts beginning at 06:00 UTC today.  That’s midnight EST today.

So, beginning today…  Note that the yellow is the strongest wind at around 30kts with stronger gusts and the white 5kts or less.   Today would not be a good day to get going as it’s blowing strong from the ESE and a low is just exiting the east coast south of Hatteras.  You probably know this but the “flags” point toward where the wind is coming from and each full “flag feather” represents 10kts of wind and a half feather, well, 5kts.   The red line would be Pandora’s course and approximate 24 hour run distance.  The Gulf Stream in yellow.  Note that the “stream” comes pretty close to Hatteras and is deflected to the east at that point.  The very shallow waters off of Hatteras make it a particularly nasty place to be when things kick up, especially with a north component wind.    That’s why they call it “the graveyard of the Atlantic”.   Cheery thought. 

On Sunday you can see that the wind is expected to shift more to the SSW.  This would still be a problem as our “apparent wind” (how it feels on board with the boat moving toward the wind) would be pretty far forward of the beam and would feel like 30kts or higher in gusts.  Not even a little bit great. 24 hours later, midnight on Monday EST, the wind has again shifted back to the north.   However, as you can see, the wind drops out about 24 hours into our run.  That’s when we would be south of the GS which goes very close to Hatteras.  still a nasty way to start the run. So, Tuesday the winds are still strong from the NE.  Nope, still not a good time to cross the Gulf Stream. Perhaps Wednesday could be a window to start out if we were ready as the winds are from the NW and not too strong.
Thursday the wind drops out so a departure might work even if it means motoring for the first day or two  Let’s see what Friday brings…Oops.  Friday again brings strong southerlies so the wind would be very far forward of the beam.  Pretty unpleasant and the pattern begins all over again. So, what’s a crew to do?   Well, this analysis suggests that there really isn’t a decent window in the next week.  However, the 4th or 5th of January is still a long way off so we will just have to wait and see what happens.  This exercise shows just how changeable the weather is in the winter months.  The key will be to get across the Gulf Stream and into more southerly waters before the next cold front moves off of the coast.

It is quite interesting to see how different the weather patterns are in the winter verses spring.  I have generally found that getting a week long window with favorable winds heading north in the spring is pretty easy as the prevailing winds are from a southerly direction and the fronts don’t roll off of the coast nearly so frequently.

I guess that’s about all for now and I’ll report back sometime next week to see how things look for the first week of January.  Ten days out we should at least be able to get an inkling of what lies ahead.

Well, I was telling Tori about what it was like sailing in the Gulf Stream with wind from the north and she wasn’t amused.  So,I gave her back to her parents.

I guess that about covers it for now.   Stay tuned for more scintillating updates on weather and getting ready to head south.  I know that my crew is.  Perhaps not Tori but it’s to soon to tell what she’ll think when she’s bigger.

Yes, I know this blog is about sailing.  Don’t worry.