Three years ago, I decided to leave Beaufort NC much later in the season than I would normally, January verses November.\u00a0 \u00a0After speaking with Chris his observation was that the weather leaving from south of Cape Hatteras was often more predictable in January than in November, when the summer and winter winds are still duking it out.<\/p>\n
As we approached our anticipated departure date, I spoke with Chris and we settled on January 5th, if I recall, to head out.\u00a0 There was a developing ridge near Puerto Rico and as long as I was able to maintain a speed of at least 7kts, I would pass the area before the feature moved into my path.\u00a0 By taking this approach we assumed that I would pass the area ahead of the ridge and avoid the gale force winds north of the ridge and instead, be south of it and enjoy trade wind sailing with 15kts on the beam.<\/p>\n
However, it didn’t work out as planned as I was slower than anticipated, averaging only 6.5 knots and the ridge moved into my path about 12 hours earlier than anticipated.\u00a0 \u00a0As a result, instead of our enjoying trade wind sailing, we had 4.5 days of running before a gale with nothing up but a double reefed main.\u00a0 It was not a fun experience as we crawled up the backside of 20′ waves at 4-5 knots and surfed down their face, sometimes at 20+kts while we all lived in fear of an uncontrolled jibe or something breaking. The point of bringing up this experience and why I ran into terrible conditions,\u00a0 is that I underestimated my speed and the ridge came in early.\u00a0 What I learned from this trip is a clear understanding that I need to always need to take into account how the forecast might change and build in contingencies.\u00a0 Or as my wife Brenda likes to say, “prepare for the worse and hope for the best.”<\/p>\n It’s pretty clear to me now that I should have just waited a few days instead of assuming that everything would go according to plan.\u00a0 Chris’s forecast wasn’t off by much and had warned me about the possible variables, but a small change in the weather and my underestimating my speed made a big difference in our experience.\u00a0 \u00a0There I was in Beaufort, crew on board, itching to get going and so was I, so we left.\u00a0 Fortunately, those 40+kt winds were behind us instead of us having to close reach in a gale, which would have been much worse.<\/p>\n So, all of this brings me to the topic of this post and that’s what’s going on with the fleet who are participating in the Salty Dawg Rally to Antigua.<\/p>\n For several days in advance of the fleet leaving each year, Chris conducts an evening briefing for skippers and crew to help them better understand the developing weather picture.\u00a0 In spite of what the weather expected, he always stresses that with a trip of 9-14 days, it’s very hard to anticipate what will happen after the first few days.<\/p>\n In this case, Chris recommended that boats leaving from the Hampton VA area should head NE for the first few days before tacking and heading for Antigua.\u00a0 The point being that by making as much easting as possible early in the trip, they would likely avoid having to beat into strong easterly trade winds later in the trip.\u00a0 \u00a0This advice seems to be playing out as the fleet gets closer to their destinations, some of skippers that are a bit west of the bulk of the fleet will have a tough time making enough easting to avoid a stop in the USVIs or perhaps Puerto Rico.\u00a0 Chris is anticipating, and the current maps show, that winds will be a bit south of east as they approach the Caribbean and boats that are not far enough east will have a rougher go of it.<\/p>\n Chris is sensitive to the needs of many of his clients, often older folks, like Brenda and me, who are looking for easy conditions and adjusts his forecasts accordingly.\u00a0 In this case, recommending that boats put some “easting in the bank” by heading to the NE early in the trip would give them a more favorable point of sail as they passed east of the Virgins.<\/p>\n Boats that are farther east will have apparent wind on the beam verses being on a close reach or worse and as the wind is expected to increase into the 20s ore higher.\u00a0 \u00a0The closer to the wind the more uncomfortable the run will be.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.sailpandora.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/1-13-17b-012.jpg\")
The autopilot steered the boat very well but ultimately a linkage failed and while someone was able to take control quickly, but before things were under control, we slewed nearly broadside to the waves.\u00a0 It was a very hairy moment, and one that I don’t want to repeat.\u00a0 I was able to repair the broken linkage but it took several hours and after the failure, we really didn’t trust my fix and someone stood at the helm every moment for the rest of the trip.\u00a0 It turns out that the prior owner had experienced this exact same failure multiple times over the years.\u00a0 Great to hear, after the fact.\u00a0 I was determined to avoid a repeat and re-engineered the linkage assembly. \u00a0<\/a>Now, thousands of miles later, no breakage.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.sailpandora.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/unnamed-6a.jpg\")
To see the fleet in real time, and see how this all plays out, click here to go to the