How many Dawgies in the window?

With apologies to Bob Merrill and his 1952 hit song, “How much is that Doggie in the window”.  I find my self wondering when the next weather”window” for the Dawgs will open up so they can head out, and when it happens, how many “Dawgies will be in the window”, heading to Antigua.

When it became clear that we were likely to be at sea over Thanksgiving, I wondered how many would opt to roll the dice and hold off from leaving until late November because they, or their family, just could not bear the thought of them being away for the holiday.

Over the last week there has been much debate among the fleet about the plusses and minuses of waiting until after Thanksgiving or leaving at the first available window.

In his marathon weather briefing on Saturday, lasting 90 minutes, Chris made it pretty clear that waiting until late in November or worse, early December was a very iffy proposition, even for a run to the Bahamas.

Late fall conditions in the north Atlantic are challenging enough, with windy cold fronts exiting the East Coast every few days.  And, in the second half of November and into December, the frequency and intensity of those fronts gets even worse.

Someone in the fleet did an informal poll of skippers and of those who responded only two said that they were waiting and would skip any window that conflicted with Thanksgiving.

Given the increased risks of difficult conditions, I am very glad that those planning to delay are in the extreme minority.   The idea of having a large number of boats trying to “thread the needle”, leaving late in the season, is very concerning to me.

In the case of one of the boats planning to head out late that I have been communicating with, I advised him to skip the run to Antigua and instead, head to the Bahamas, a run that will also be much more difficult the later he leaves.  Later in November it is unlikely that he will be able to make the run the entire way without stopping along the way to wait for better weather.

Ironically, a later start to the Bahamas is likely to take 2 weeks, perhaps longer than a run to Antigua, in spite of it being about half the distance.

When we had our briefing on Saturday, Chris Parker, our weather router, said that he thought there was a decent chance that we’d be able to head at some point between November 13th to 16th, about a week from now.

Here is the forecast for tomorrow, Tuesday.  The arrow is Hampton, where we will be leaving from.  As you can see, the wind is quite strong and from the north.  There is no way that we’d want to be out in that, crossing the Gulf Stream.  As the Stream flows to the NE, having strong winds, 30-40kts, from the NE against the current would make for miserable conditions.   Nope, have to wait for better conditions. And, two days later not looking good at all, with strong onshore winds again, a total reversal as the low moves up the coast.    Of course, these assumptions are more than a week from now but just in case, we want to begin to think about being ready when the picture become clearer.

If the assumptions of a week from now are right, a window might begin to open up as early as next Sunday.  The arrow shows north wind out of the Chesapeake in the low teens, a broad reach with easy sailing conditions.   The model shows that the really nasty stuff has moved to the NE.  Even if these conditions played out, it’s likely that Chris would suggest waiting another day to give the seas an opportunity to calm down from the heaviest winds. What happens after that date as we make our way south?  In past years we have had to go a very long way to get to consistent “trade winds” out of the east.  This scenario seems to suggest that the trades would be building fairly far north and from the east.  In the past, we have been frustrated by relentless SE winds, making it very difficult to go south.  Several years ago we had to motorsail to the east for three days waiting for more favorable winds.   During those three days we never made a mile closer to Antigua.  It was very frustrating.

As I sit here on Monday, a week before all of this will unfold, who knows what the timing and conditions we will face will be like.

The good news is that both the European and US weather models seem pretty much aligned in their assumptions, which suggests that things might play out as described even if this is still a week out.

In a few days Brenda and I head to MD to spend some time with our grandchildren.   That might end up being a convenient half way stopping point as I plan my return to Pandora next weekend to get ready for the run.

I really hope that conditions will allow for a departure next week as one of my crew will have to bail if we can’t get to Antigua by the end of the month.

With Thanksgiving on the horizon and the prospect of being at sea for the holiday, it will be interesting to see just how many Dawgies will end up in the (next) window.

Yes, I get it, and know that I have tortured that about enough for now so I guess I’ll sign off.

Another update after our next briefing tomorrow evening.

Fingers crossed.

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